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Reduction in aviation's net emissions
Decrease in emissions from decarbonization strategies, gigatonnes carbon dioxide equivalent emissions (GtCO₂-eq)
Emission Scope: Conventional Jet Fuel: Well-to-wake | Hydrogen: Well-to-wake | Electricity: Well-to-wake
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Historical Data
Sources
Source: Wind-to-Wake LCA Model v6 · Boeing CASCADE methodology
Historic emissions: 1960-1989 Sausen & Schumann; 1990-2003 Lee et al.; 2004-2014 IATA₁; 2015-2018 IATA₂. Capacity: Airlines for America (A4A).
Historic emissions: 1960-1989 Sausen & Schumann; 1990-2003 Lee et al.; 2004-2014 IATA₁; 2015-2018 IATA₂. Capacity: Airlines for America (A4A).
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Route CI by Fuel Type (2030 Projection)
Carbon intensity breakdown per route by fuel pathway. Values in gCO₂-eq/pax-km (Well-to-Wake). Aircraft type assigned by range-capability matching.
Sources: Airbus GMF 2023, ICAO CORSIA Default Values, IATA Fuel Fact Sheet 2024, Cirium Sky API baseline.
| Route | Aircraft | Dist (nm) | Category | Jet A-1 | SAF | LH₂ | Electric | eFuel | Total CI | Fuel Mix |
|---|
Aggregated CI by Fuel — All Routes
Assumptions: Jet A-1 WtW CI = 89 gCO₂/MJ (JEC v5); SAF blend CI per CORSIA default (50% reduction at 100% blend); LH₂ CI varies by production pathway (green electrolysis target: 0 gCO₂/MJ at source); eFuel CI per PtL lifecycle (Agora Energiewende 2023). Aircraft-route matching uses Airbus GMF range-payload envelopes. Cirium Sky API provides real-time validation baseline.
Sky Emissions API Search
Search Cirium's real-time aircraft emissions database. Enter origin/destination airport codes.
API: GET /emissions/v1/aerodromes/{origin}/destinations/{dest}/co2_emissions
Requires Cirium API key. developer.cirium.com |
30-day trial
Cirium Energy Mix — Route Comparison
Projected energy mix by route distance band. Cirium Sky baseline + CASCADE forward model.
Source: Cirium Sky API (2024 baseline CO₂/pax-km) cross-referenced with CASCADE V2.7 energy transition model.
Short haul (<1500nm) eligible for electric/H₂; medium haul (1500–3500nm) SAF-dominant; long haul (>3500nm) Jet A-1 + SAF blend.
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Cirium Sky vs CASCADE Benchmark
| Route | Distance | Band | Cirium CI | CASCADE CI | Delta | Jet A-1 % | SAF % | LH₂ % | Electric % | eFuel % |
|---|
Cirium CI values from Sky emissions API (actual 2024 or forward-scheduled). CASCADE projections use WtW boundaries per fuel pathway.
Delta = (CASCADE - Cirium) / Cirium × 100. Negative delta indicates CASCADE projects lower CI than current Cirium baseline.
Energy mix assumptions: ReFuelEU mandate trajectory (2% SAF 2025, 6% 2030, 20% 2035, 34% 2040, 42% 2045, 70% 2050). H₂ penetration per ICAO LTAG IS2/IS3.
Energy mix assumptions: ReFuelEU mandate trajectory (2% SAF 2025, 6% 2030, 20% 2035, 34% 2040, 42% 2045, 70% 2050). H₂ penetration per ICAO LTAG IS2/IS3.
Data Sources & Methodology
CASCADE V2.7 Engine
Boeing CASCADE (Coordinated Application System for Concepts Assessment in Detailed Environment) is the industry standard for lifecycle analysis of aviation energy and emissions. V2.7 includes updated WtW boundaries for hydrogen and SAF pathways.
Airbus Sources
Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF) 2024–2043
Fleet composition, traffic growth (4.7% CAGR recovery), aircraft deliveries forecast, and retirement curves. 42,430 new aircraft demand over 20 years. Passenger fleet mix: 76% single-aisle, 24% widebody.
airbus.com/global-market-forecast
Fleet composition, traffic growth (4.7% CAGR recovery), aircraft deliveries forecast, and retirement curves. 42,430 new aircraft demand over 20 years. Passenger fleet mix: 76% single-aisle, 24% widebody.
airbus.com/global-market-forecast
Airbus ZEROe Hydrogen Concept Aircraft
Three hydrogen-powered concept aircraft (turbofan, turboprop, blended-wing-body). EIS target: 2035. Range: 1,000–2,000+ nm. Direct combustion and fuel cell architectures. Cryogenic LH₂ storage at 20 K.
airbus.com/zeroe
Three hydrogen-powered concept aircraft (turbofan, turboprop, blended-wing-body). EIS target: 2035. Range: 1,000–2,000+ nm. Direct combustion and fuel cell architectures. Cryogenic LH₂ storage at 20 K.
airbus.com/zeroe
Airbus A320 Family Aircraft Characteristics (AC)
Airport planning reference: A320neo fuel capacity (26,730 L), MTOW (79 t), range (3,400 nm). Used for fuel burn index normalization and route-range capability matching.
Airbus AC A320 Family PDF
Airport planning reference: A320neo fuel capacity (26,730 L), MTOW (79 t), range (3,400 nm). Used for fuel burn index normalization and route-range capability matching.
Airbus AC A320 Family PDF
Airbus A350 Family Aircraft Characteristics
A350-900: range 8,100 nm, 314 seats (3-class). A350-1000: range 8,700 nm, 369 seats. A350F: 109t payload, EIS 2027. Fuel burn 25% lower than previous-generation widebodies.
Airbus AC A350 Family PDF
A350-900: range 8,100 nm, 314 seats (3-class). A350-1000: range 8,700 nm, 369 seats. A350F: 109t payload, EIS 2027. Fuel burn 25% lower than previous-generation widebodies.
Airbus AC A350 Family PDF
Airbus A220 Aircraft Characteristics
A220-300: range 3,350 nm, 130–160 seats. 20% lower fuel burn per seat vs. previous generation. Used as reference for efficient single-aisle baseline in CASCADE model.
Airbus AC A220 PDF
A220-300: range 3,350 nm, 130–160 seats. 20% lower fuel burn per seat vs. previous generation. Used as reference for efficient single-aisle baseline in CASCADE model.
Airbus AC A220 PDF
Airbus A330neo Aircraft Characteristics
A330-900neo: range 7,200 nm, 287 seats (3-class). Fuel efficiency improvement of 25% vs. A330ceo. Used for medium-haul widebody CI calculations.
Airbus AC A330neo PDF
A330-900neo: range 7,200 nm, 287 seats (3-class). Fuel efficiency improvement of 25% vs. A330ceo. Used for medium-haul widebody CI calculations.
Airbus AC A330neo PDF
Airbus Sustainability Report & ESG Databook 2023
Scope 1/2/3 emissions, fleet-in-service efficiency metrics, SAF uptake targets (50% by 2030), and Airbus corporate net-zero 2050 pathway. Used for fleet CI normalization baseline.
airbus.com/sustainability
Scope 1/2/3 emissions, fleet-in-service efficiency metrics, SAF uptake targets (50% by 2030), and Airbus corporate net-zero 2050 pathway. Used for fleet CI normalization baseline.
airbus.com/sustainability
Airbus Hydrogen Hub at Airports
Infrastructure requirements for LH₂ airport operations: storage (cryogenic tanks), refueling (hydrant vs. bowser), safety zones, and boil-off management (1–3% daily). Partnership with Air Liquide, Shell, TotalEnergies.
airbus.com/hydrogen-hub-at-airports
Infrastructure requirements for LH₂ airport operations: storage (cryogenic tanks), refueling (hydrant vs. bowser), safety zones, and boil-off management (1–3% daily). Partnership with Air Liquide, Shell, TotalEnergies.
airbus.com/hydrogen-hub-at-airports
Airbus FELLO'FLY & Wake Energy Retrieval
Formation flying demonstration (2 A350s, 2021). 5–10% fuel savings on long-haul wake-surfing segments. Incorporated in Operations efficiency lever.
airbus.com/fellofly
Formation flying demonstration (2 A350s, 2021). 5–10% fuel savings on long-haul wake-surfing segments. Incorporated in Operations efficiency lever.
airbus.com/fellofly
Airbus CityAirbus NextGen eVTOL
All-electric vertical takeoff, 80 km range, 4 passengers. EIS 2025+. Represents electric urban air mobility segment in E-Regional forecasts.
airbus.com/cityairbus-nextgen
All-electric vertical takeoff, 80 km range, 4 passengers. EIS 2025+. Represents electric urban air mobility segment in E-Regional forecasts.
airbus.com/cityairbus-nextgen
Cirium Sources
Cirium Sky Emissions API
Real-time and forward-schedule CO₂ per-route and per-flight. Endpoints: emissions by route (origin/destination IATA), emissions by flight number, forward 24h emissions forecast. Used as validation baseline for CASCADE model outputs.
developer.cirium.com
Real-time and forward-schedule CO₂ per-route and per-flight. Endpoints: emissions by route (origin/destination IATA), emissions by flight number, forward 24h emissions forecast. Used as validation baseline for CASCADE model outputs.
developer.cirium.com
Cirium Fleet & Schedule Data
Global airline schedules, aircraft type assignments per route, fleet age distribution, and utilization rates. Powers route-aircraft matching and distance calculations in the Routes CI by Fuel model.
cirium.com/flight-schedules
Global airline schedules, aircraft type assignments per route, fleet age distribution, and utilization rates. Powers route-aircraft matching and distance calculations in the Routes CI by Fuel model.
cirium.com/flight-schedules
Regulatory & Industry
ICAO CORSIA Default Life Cycle Emissions Values
Core SAF pathway CI values. HEFA: 22.4 gCO₂e/MJ, FT (MSW): 7.7 gCO₂e/MJ, AtJ (sugarcane): 24.0 gCO₂e/MJ. Conventional jet fuel baseline: 89 gCO₂e/MJ.
icao.int/CORSIA
Core SAF pathway CI values. HEFA: 22.4 gCO₂e/MJ, FT (MSW): 7.7 gCO₂e/MJ, AtJ (sugarcane): 24.0 gCO₂e/MJ. Conventional jet fuel baseline: 89 gCO₂e/MJ.
icao.int/CORSIA
ICAO LTAG (Long-Term Aspirational Goal)
Net-zero 2050 aviation goal adopted at ICAO 41st Assembly. Three integrated scenarios (IS1/IS2/IS3) for technology, operations, fuels, and offsets. H₂ penetration ranges from 2% (IS1) to 13% (IS3) of total energy by 2050.
icao.int/LTAG
Net-zero 2050 aviation goal adopted at ICAO 41st Assembly. Three integrated scenarios (IS1/IS2/IS3) for technology, operations, fuels, and offsets. H₂ penetration ranges from 2% (IS1) to 13% (IS3) of total energy by 2050.
icao.int/LTAG
ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation (EU) 2023/2405
Mandatory SAF blending: 2% (2025), 6% (2030), 20% (2035), 34% (2040), 42% (2045), 70% (2050). Sub-mandate for synthetic fuels (eFuels): 0.7% (2030) → 35% (2050). Used for EU route energy mix projections.
EUR-Lex 2023/2405
Mandatory SAF blending: 2% (2025), 6% (2030), 20% (2035), 34% (2040), 42% (2045), 70% (2050). Sub-mandate for synthetic fuels (eFuels): 0.7% (2030) → 35% (2050). Used for EU route energy mix projections.
EUR-Lex 2023/2405
IATA Fuel Fact Sheet & Net Zero Roadmap
Global jet fuel consumption: 96 billion gallons (2023). SAF production: 0.53% of total (2024). IATA net-zero 2050 pathway: 65% SAF, 13% new propulsion (H₂/electric), 3% operations, 19% offsets.
iata.org/SAF
Global jet fuel consumption: 96 billion gallons (2023). SAF production: 0.53% of total (2024). IATA net-zero 2050 pathway: 65% SAF, 13% new propulsion (H₂/electric), 3% operations, 19% offsets.
iata.org/SAF
Emissions Science & Historical Data
Sausen & Schumann (2000) — Aviation CO₂ emissions 1960–1989. Used for historical baseline in CASCADE main chart.
Lee et al. (2009, 2021) — "The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018." Atmospheric Environment. Emissions 1990–2018, non-CO₂ multiplier (EWF = 3×).
IATA Annual Review — Traffic and emissions data 2004–2024. Capacity metrics from Airlines for America (A4A).
JEC Well-to-Wheels Study v5 (2020) — Jet A-1 WtW default: 89 gCO₂e/MJ. JRC/EUCAR/CONCAWE collaboration.
Agora Energiewende (2023) — "The Future Cost of eFuels." PtL lifecycle CI: 1–30 gCO₂e/MJ depending on electricity source.
Lee et al. (2009, 2021) — "The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018." Atmospheric Environment. Emissions 1990–2018, non-CO₂ multiplier (EWF = 3×).
IATA Annual Review — Traffic and emissions data 2004–2024. Capacity metrics from Airlines for America (A4A).
JEC Well-to-Wheels Study v5 (2020) — Jet A-1 WtW default: 89 gCO₂e/MJ. JRC/EUCAR/CONCAWE collaboration.
Agora Energiewende (2023) — "The Future Cost of eFuels." PtL lifecycle CI: 1–30 gCO₂e/MJ depending on electricity source.
Hydrogen Pathways
IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2023 — Production pathways: SMR (gray, 10 kgCO₂/kgH₂), SMR+CCS (blue, 2–4 kgCO₂/kgH₂), Electrolysis (green, 0 kgCO₂/kgH₂ with renewable electricity). Liquefaction energy: 10–13 kWh/kgH₂.
Clean Hydrogen JU (EU) — SRIA 2024 — Target electrolyzer costs: €300/kW by 2030. Green H₂ production cost: €1.5–2.0/kg by 2030.
McKinsey & Co. / Hydrogen Council (2021) — "Hydrogen Insights." Aviation H₂ demand: 5–10 Mt/yr by 2050. Infrastructure investment: $200–300B for airport readiness globally.
Clean Hydrogen JU (EU) — SRIA 2024 — Target electrolyzer costs: €300/kW by 2030. Green H₂ production cost: €1.5–2.0/kg by 2030.
McKinsey & Co. / Hydrogen Council (2021) — "Hydrogen Insights." Aviation H₂ demand: 5–10 Mt/yr by 2050. Infrastructure investment: $200–300B for airport readiness globally.
Open Data & Tools
OpenSky Network — ADS-B flight tracking, aircraft type metadata, 45%+ global coverage. opensky-network.org
AeroSCOPE (AeroMAPS) — Comprehensive air traffic database for environmental analysis. github.com/AeroMAPS/AeroSCOPE
OpenAP (TU Delft) — Open aircraft performance model: drag polars, fuel burn, emissions by type. github.com/TUDelft-CNS-ATM/openap
BTS T-100 (US DOT) — U.S. domestic/international route data with aircraft type and passenger volumes. bts.dot.gov
Eurocontrol ADRR — 18M+ European flight trajectories since 2015. eurocontrol.int/aviation-data
OpenFlights — 67K routes, airport/airline databases (ODbL license). openflights.org/data
AeroSCOPE (AeroMAPS) — Comprehensive air traffic database for environmental analysis. github.com/AeroMAPS/AeroSCOPE
OpenAP (TU Delft) — Open aircraft performance model: drag polars, fuel burn, emissions by type. github.com/TUDelft-CNS-ATM/openap
BTS T-100 (US DOT) — U.S. domestic/international route data with aircraft type and passenger volumes. bts.dot.gov
Eurocontrol ADRR — 18M+ European flight trajectories since 2015. eurocontrol.int/aviation-data
OpenFlights — 67K routes, airport/airline databases (ODbL license). openflights.org/data
Scenarios
NDC 2030: Nationally Determined Contributions pathway. Net Zero 2050: ICAO CORSIA baseline + accelerated fleet renewal. Hydrogen scenarios: Fleet transition to LH₂ with grid decarbonization pathways (gray/blue/green). All scenarios assume continued air traffic growth and economic recovery post-2024. ReFuelEU H₂ Mandate reflects EU 2023/2405 blending obligations.
Well-to-Wake Boundaries
Jet A-1 WtW: Crude extraction → refining → airport delivery (JEC v5: 89 gCO₂e/MJ). SAF WtW: Feedstock → conversion → blending (CORSIA defaults: HEFA 22.4, FT-MSW 7.7 gCO₂e/MJ). Hydrogen WtW: Production (SMR / Electrolysis) → liquefaction (10–13 kWh/kg) → evaporation loss (~1–3%/day). eFuels WtW: Renewable electricity → electrolysis → DAC CO₂ capture → Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (Agora 2023).